Predicting Bankruptcy

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Yes, believe it or not, it is possible to reliably estimate the probability of a company going bankrupt! The z score was published in 1968 by renowned professor of the NYU Stern School of Business Edward I. Altman.

The z score has since been used to measure the financial distress of a company i.e. its financial health. The z score is linear combination of various ratios and weighted coefficients of firms that declared bankruptcy and matching them to a set that survived bankruptcy in the same industry.



The predictive accuracy of Altman’s z score is remarkable, attaining up to 90% accuracy for a one year time horizon and 72% for a two year horizon!
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MiFID II, no joking!

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Wow, a GRAND start into the new year 2018! MiFID II just took off! The “Market in Financial Instruments Directive”, what an awkward name, even according to Bloomberg! Not many I know can memorise this easily. Maybe it looks better like this:
– Markets
– in
– Financial
– Instruments
– Directive
Not really! Nevertheless, MiFID II just took effect on January 3rd 2018. This European legislation had grand intensions, since it’s first implementation back in 2007 as MiFID I. Increase consumer protection and increase competition! Great, sounds good!



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BLOCKBUSTING YEAR 2O18

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As I woke up this morning, enjoying my favorite first coffee, Brooke chanted out my usual financial summary I have now become accustomed to. Nothing special nowadays. She beamed up the key figures right in front of me over the kitchen table, all my accounts, my two portfolios, all non-financial assets with derived appraisals on my real estate, my home and holiday appartment, the latest  estimates on my stamp collection, even one on my old books collectables. Nothing had moved significantly lately so Brooke was fairly calm.


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All I want for Christmas is a Bitcoin

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They say you know there’s a bubble when the man on the street gives you a stock tip. It’s one of those moments when your friends ask, your relatives ask, even your mother asks “How can I double my money”.

It becomes such a repugnant question to answer that the easy way out, even for an investment professional, is to just follow the bandwagon. At these moments in time, the market appears to soar to the highest heights of irrational exuberance. There is no way out, especially if your job is to invest for a living.



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Does the good old “little-boys-club” prevent innovation?

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This comic is dedicated with merit to three amazing and inspiring women, Penelope Gazin, Kate Dwyer and Katja Rieger.

Indeed, we have actually moved out of the jungle! Only to arrive at a self created new one, keeping some remaining stone age and amphibious structures alive! For decades research by scientists show that socially diverse groups are more innovative and attain superior financial performance than homogeneous groups. Yes, there is even a number: diverse companies outperform the industry norm by 35%. These are the facts!



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Pierin Vincenz’s tentacles of pleasure land him in trouble

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There is absolutely no conflict of interest here! His interests challenge the “status quo” of normality and FINMA is just not used to such managerial dynamism. It’s all a complete misunderstanding. But fear not because former-Raiffeisen CEO Pierin Vincenz will clear things up pretty quickly.



These were not tentacles of conflict, but synergies to be harnessed. His deep routed connections in business, and perhaps in marital pleasure, have helped build Raiffeisen into Switzerland’s third largest bank.

Perhaps we should give him a medal. Or perhaps not.

Article by James Eagle

Bitcoin could do to banks what e-mail has done to our postal service

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We accepted their jammed keys, their snarled ribbons and their smudgy carbon paper for copies. It was our world, but we knew no better. Fortunately the PC arrived in this absence of logic and our lives changed forever.



Sometimes you need to look afresh at what we take for granted in order to innovate, like how we do banking. Here, bitcoin or more specifically blockchain could do to banks what email has done to our postal service. Perhaps it’s a little before its time, like the Internet before the web browser. But it’s surely not a hype?

Article by James Eagle